Sports Mole previews Sunday’s Paris Masters final between Alexander Zverev and Ugo Humbert, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Ugo Humbert‘s bid to become the first Frenchman to claim the Paris Masters since Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 2008 pits him against favourite Alexander Zverev in Sunday’s championship match.
The home player has overcome one top-10 opponent this week and seeks another to stun the 2020 finalist, who aims for a first crown in the French capital.
Match preview
© Imago
Zverev’s eyes probably lit up after Jannik Sinner withdrew on the eve of his tournament opener in Paris, and that excitement possibly doubled after Carlos Alcaraz was eliminated by Humbert in the third round.
The German has had a commendable week in Bercy, eliminating Tallon Griekspoor, who has provided stern tests in recent match-ups, in two sets, home hope Arthur Fils in three, his bete noire Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets and 2022 champion Holger Rune in Saturday’s semi-final.
The upshot of the No. 3 seed’s 6-3, 7-6(4) victory over the Dane gives the 27-year-old another chance to compete for the title in Bercy, keen to right the perceived wrongs of proceedings four years back when he lost in three sets to Daniil Medvedev (5-7, 6-4, 6-1).
Zverev won the opening set four years back but could not notch the second and collapsed in the third, a disappointment he aims to correct against his French opponent in the final Masters 1000 match at the Accor Arena in Bercy.
His latest win took him to 65 for the season, level with Sinner, and he aims to clinch a win in the championship match to move ahead of the best ATP Tour player this season and claim a title above the ATP 250 level for the first time since winning the Finals in 2021.
© Imago
Having overcome Fils en route to the decider, the German favourite must find solutions in Sunday’s hostile atmosphere against an opponent having a dream run on home turf.
Humbert’s ATP 1000 peak entering the 2024 tournament in Paris was the last eight, a stage reached three times, including his 2020 run on home turf; however, defeat soon followed each run in the French capital four years back, Shanghai 12 months ago and Monte-Carlo earlier this season, underlining the player’s struggle in elite tournaments.
This year has been different for the 26-year-old, who defeated Alcaraz for the first time on tour and beat indoor specialist Karen Khachanov in Saturday’s last-four match to secure his place in Sunday’s championship match.
Defeating the Russian in three thrilling sets (6-7[6], 6-4 6-3) means Humbert could become the first Frenchman since Tsonga’s 2011 feat to reach the final.
That 2011 decider ended in defeat against Roger Federer, but the 2024 finalist seeks a different outcome against a player he faces for the third time on the ATP Tour.
Having notched the titles in Marseille and Metz in 2024, Humbert seeks the biggest career success by defeating Zverev to cap off an incredible week by defeating a second top-10 opponent on home soil.
Tournament so far
Alexander Zverev:
First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Tallon Griekspoor 7-6(2) 6-3
Third round: vs. Arthur Fils 6-4 3-6 6-3
Quarter-final: vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-5 6-4
Semi-final: vs. Holger Rune 6-3 7-6(4)
Ugo Humbert:
First round: vs. Brandon Nakashima 6-3 4-6 6-4
Second round: vs. Marcos Giron 6-3 6-2
Third round: vs. vs. Carlos Alcaraz 6-1 3-6 7-5
Quarter-final: vs. Jordan Thompson 6-2 7-6(4)
Semi-final: vs. Karen Khachanov 6-7(6) 6-4 6-3
Head To Head
Paris Masters (2023) – Round of 32: Zverev 6-4 6-7(3) 7-6(5)
Halle (2021) – Round of 16: Humbert 7-6(4) 3-6 6-3
Zverev and Humbert have split previous meetings 1-1, with the Frenchman beating the German star in three sets three years back before the Zverev got the better of the home player in this event last year, triumphing in another three-setter.
The Frenchman is 13-16 against top-10 opponents and recently ended a 0-4 losing run to beat Alcaraz this week and aims to notch a consecutive triumph against the elite group in several days.
The German player, who is 0-2 in finals since his Rome Masters success, seeks a 15th consecutive success against left-handed opponents in 2024 (26th in a row) when he takes on the home player.
Both men have battled through tiebreaks in previous encounters, and another is expected in Sunday’s decider.
We say: Zverev to win in three sets
Humbert is undoubtedly expected to have the crowd in his corner on Sunday, with fans not hiding their support for the lefty all week.
Zverev has had an admirable week of defeating players who have either posed problems in the past (read: Tsitsipas) or ones with incredible records in Bercy (read: Rune) to surge into a second final in Paris.
Despite the partisan support, the German player is backed to record success in the final ATP 1000 event of the year to record his second victory this year and seventh overall.
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