Sports Mole takes a look at how many points should be enough to see teams progress through the League Phase of the 2024-25 Champions League this season.
Matchday four of the new Champions League format is now upon us, with the 36-team League Phase beginning to take shape coming up to the halfway stage.
It is not a shape many would have expected at this point, though, with Aston Villa leading the way in the Champions League table and the likes of Monaco, Brest and Sporting Lisbon also in the coveted top eight after three games.
The Premier League boasts each of the top three spots, with Liverpool joining Villa as the only other team with a 100% record, and Manchester City close behind in third.
That could all change on matchday four, though, and there are some mouth-watering fixtures once again in the latest midweek schedule.
For starters, the two most successful clubs in the competition’s history go head to head when Real Madrid welcome AC Milan to the Bernabeu in a battle between clubs that have lifted an incredible 22 European Cup crowns between them.
Elsewhere, Xabi Alonso makes his return to Anfield as his unbeaten Bayer Leverkusen side take on Arne Slot‘s perfect Liverpool team in a match with subplots galore, and the same can be said of Manchester City’s trip to Sporting, led by Manchester United-bound Ruben Amorim.
On Wednesday night, Arsenal face a tricky trip to take on Inter Milan at San Siro, while Villa will also be looking to continue their dream start after a nightmare week domestically, and Paris Saint-Germain host Atletico Madrid in another eye-catching fixture.
Here, Sports Mole takes a look at how many points should be enough to see teams progress through the League Phase of the Champions League this season.
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How many points are required to reach Champions League knockouts?
The league phase of the 2024-25 Champions League started in September and will run through to January, meaning that there is a slight extension on the December end date of the previous group-stage format.
All 36 clubs will play eight times in the League Phase and the top eight teams will automatically advance to the last 16, while sides finishing between ninth and 24th must compete in a two-legged playoff round to join them. Any team that finishes 25th or lower will be eliminated with no access to the Europa League.
According to studies from Football Meets Data, who have carried out over 10,000 simulations, between 15 and 16 points will most likely be enough to see teams secure a top-eight finish and progress to the knockout rounds of the Champions League in its new format.
This would therefore mean that teams would be required to win at least five of their eight matches in the League Phase, or another combination of victories and draws to reach the 15 to 16-point marker.
The English quartet have all made encouraging starts in the race to that points tally, and victories this week would put Liverpool and Aston Villa in particular within touching distance of it.
Opta, predicted that Slot’s side would collect 13 points in total during the League Phase, and had a 31.7% chance of finishing in the top eight to progress automatically to the last 16, but victory over Leverkusen would see them already within one point of projection with half of their matches still to play.
Meanwhile, the report from Football Meets Data finds that teams will likely need to claim nine points from eight matches if they wish to finish in the top 24 and secure at least a place in the playoff round – a tally which Villa and Liverpool have already reached.
> Click here to view every 2024-25 Champions League fixture
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