Preview: Cameron Norrie vs. Grigor Dimitrov – predictions, head-to-head, tournament so far

Since this article was published, Grigor Dimitrov has withdrawn from the tournament and has been replaced by Luca van Assche.

After snapping a four-month streak without victory on the ATP Tour, former British number one Cameron Norrie faces a stern test of his Moselle Open credentials on Wednesday, when he meets third seed Grigor Dimitrov in the second round.

While the Bulgarian bypassed the first-round stage, Norrie had to produce a terrific fightback to eliminate Roberto Carballes Baena, who had some choice words for the world number 57 at the end.

Match preview

© Imago

Not since July’s Swedish Open in Bastad – where Rafael Nadal sent him packing in the second round – had Norrie earned a top-level victory before touching down in Metz, having experienced a troubling summer of injuries before returning in October with a couple of Challenger victories.

The world number 57 fell at the first hurdle in Stockholm and Vienna before a chastening qualifying exit to Quentin Halys at the Paris Masters, and his miserable losing streak looked set to continue against Spain’s Carballes Baena, who sits just one place better off in the ATP Rankings.

However, Norrie made a brilliant recovery from a set and a break down to prevail 3-6 6-4 6-3 in two hours and 16 minutes, coming up with nine aces and also saving 12 of the 15 break points that Carballes Baena fashioned in an exemplary defensive display.

The Briton’s antics did not set well with Carballes Baena, though, as the 31-year-old took issue with Norrie’s battle cries throughout the match – seeming to think they were aimed in his direction – and let him know as such after the customary handshake at the net.

An unmoved Norrie simply insisted that he was trying to “fire” himself up after a disastrous opening set – tactics which evidently paid dividends – and the 29-year-old now bids for back-to-back wins at the top level for the first time since Wimbledon.

© Imago

That will be easier said than done against a foe of Dimitrov’s ilk, though, as the Bulgarian begins his quest for Moselle Open stardom after failing to replicate his run to the final of the Paris Masters from 2023, falling at the quarter-final stage this time around.

The world number 10 eliminated Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Arthur Rinderknech before coming up short against Russia’s Karen Khachanov, who needed just one hour and eight minutes to storm to a 6-2 6-3 win against his off-colour opponent.

Having already been taken to three sets by Etcheverry and Rinderknech – prevailing over the latter in an energy-zapping third-set tie-breaker – fatigue may have come into play for Dimitrov against Khachanov, but the 33-year-old arrives in Metz refreshed and ready to go again.

Dimitrov also has arguably nothing to lose on Wednesday, as his quarter-final loss to Khachanov in Paris extinguished his slim chances of qualifying for the year-end ATP Finals, although ending the season with a 10th ATP Tour title would be a fitting way to close 2024.

The victor of Wednesday’s second-round battle will face either Hugo Gaston or lucky loser Titouan Droguet for a place in the semi-finals, where top seed Andrey Rublev may be lying in wait, while Casper Ruud is on the other side of the intriguing Moselle draw.

Tournament so far

Cameron Norrie:

First round: vs. Roberto Carballes Baena 3-6 6-4 6-3

Head To Head

Queen’s Club Championships (2022) – First round: Dimitrov wins 6-7[2] 6-1 6-4
Indian Wells Masters (2021) – Semi-finals: Norrie wins 6-2 6-4
Miami Open (2021) – Second round: Norrie wins 7-5 7-5

Norrie boasts a 2-1 head-to-head advantage over Dimitrov from their three previous clashes on the ATP Tour, conquering the Bulgarian in both of their 2021 showdowns in Miami and Indian Wells.

The Briton went on to win the latter tournament after a simple straight-sets win over Dimitrov in the semi-finals, but the 33-year-old made it third time lucky in the opening stage of Queen’s in 2022.

On that occasion, Dimitrov was edged out in a nail-biting first-set tie-breaker but came back to win in three, although Norrie used that defeat as fuel to make the SW19 semis a few weeks later.

We say: Dimitrov to win in two sets

Dimitrov may have been uncharacteristically sloppy in his showdown with Khachanov in Paris, but the world number 10 was surely just feeling the effects of a gruelling week and will be back to his best here.

As a result, we cannot envisage Norrie putting up much of a fight against his Bulgarian foe, who ought to be more clinical on break points than Carballes Baena was.

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