Preview: ATP Finals: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Andrey Rublev – prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Given the seeming physical issues Carlos Alcaraz faced in his ATP World Tour Finals opener, Andrey Rublev will fancy his chances against the Spaniard in Wednesday’s round-robin match.

The 21-year-old was out-of-sorts in his tournament-opening loss to Casper Ruud, while Rublev was outmanoeuvred by Alexander Zverev on Monday night.

Match preview

© Imago Alcaraz came into the season finale in Turin keen to battle Zverev for the year-end No. 2 ranking, but that ambition is under threat with the Spaniard facing elimination from the event. Heading into his third ATP Tour meeting with Rublev after Monday’s 1-6, 5-7 loss to Ruud, the four-time Grand Slam champion’s final round-robin match against Zverev could be laden with jeopardy if he suffers consecutive defeats. While he is prone to dips within matches, the 21-year-old could not muster a sustained fightback to turn around an error-strewn opening set, twice losing five games in a row in sets one and two, the latter seeing him lose a 5-2 advantage. The upshot of that loss means Alcaraz’s undefeated streak against Ruud is over (4-1), and the Spaniard’s admission of a stomach bug possibly limiting his performance casts doubt on his physical level against Rublev. Much will depend on the Spaniard’s health improving before Wednesday as he aims to improve on his recent 1-2 record before facing the Russian. © Imago Rublev’s performance against Zverev will have sufficed against most opponents on tour, but the German, who gave little away on serve and converted two break opportunities, outdid the 27-year-old 16-time tour champion. The Russian will back himself to muster chances in match two in Turin, given Alcaraz’s ill health and the Spaniard’s attacking style typically leading to more errors when he plays far from perfect tennis. It remains to be seen which version of the 21-year-old steps on the court on Wednesday, but Rublev aims to record a second success this season against the younger player to follow his three-set triumph in Madrid months back. Despite his physical advantage over the Spanish star, the 27-year-old’s recent poor form casts doubt on a straightforward outcome for this match. Rublev enters the match having lost three of his previous four matches, with his only success in that period coming last week in Metz before withdrawing to focus on the season finale. With neither player in peak form, the upcoming encounter is particularly intriguing due to the qualification upshots.

Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz: Round robin: vs. Casper Ruud 1-6 5-7 Andrey Rublev: Round robin: vs. Alexander Zverev 4-6 4-6

Head To Head

Madrid Masters (2024) – Quarter-final: Rublev 4-6 6-3 6-2 ATP Finals (2023) – Round robin: Alcaraz 7-5 6-2 Wednesday is a rematch of last year’s round-robin encounter, secured by Alcaraz in straight sets (7-5, 6-2). Rublev got his revenge on the clay courts in Madrid in their second meeting on the tour, notching a turnaround success at the Masters event. The Russian has a mixed 3-4 record against top-10 opponents in 2024, although two of his three triumphs were against Alcaraz in Madrid and Jannik Sinner in Canada; however, he heads into Wednesday on a three-match losing streak against that elite group.

We say: Alcaraz to win in three sets

If Alcaraz is healthier after struggling against Ruud, he should possess the tools to overcome Rublev. The Russian has been plagued by inconsistent performances leading up to the Finals, particularly in recent tournaments, and that dip in form, combined with Alcaraz’s superior court coverage and shot-making when healthy, makes the Spaniard the likely victor.
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