Preview: Scotland vs. Portugal – prediction, team news, lineups

Saturday’s Autumn Nations Series action kicks off at Murrayfield, where Scotland will be taking on Portugal for the third time in international Test rugby.

These two have faced off twice in the past – in a 1999 World Cup qualifier and at the 2007 World Cup – and Scotland won both matches by big margins.

Match preview

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Scottish fans left Murrayfield last weekend with mixed emotions, on a night where they watched their side display excellent defence and aggression against a sloppy Springboks, but still end up conceding four tries and losing by a healthy margin.

Indeed, the emotional rollercoaster was given an added push by a few decisions by Christophe Ridley and his team, which Gregor Townsend also pointed to in his post-match press conference – but, as most close decisions go, could be construed either way.

However, while there was plenty to like about the Scots’ performance against the world champions, there were also areas of improvement, most notably at scrum time early in the game, where they rarely managed to challenge the Boks.

Out wide, Duhan Van der Merwe, barring a fingertip drag back by Eben Etzebeth to deny him a clear try, was largely invisible in the match and seemed to struggle to work the inside channels when being marshalled by the touchline defenders.

Nevertheless, while the scoreline last week may not have been a clear reflection of Scotland’s performance, the good news over the weekend was seeing England lose to Australia, which allowed them to move above the Red Rose in the world rankings.

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While this marks the third meeting between these nations in Test Rugby, it is the first time that Portugal will feature in the Autumn Nations series, highlighting the progress they have made on the international scene in recent years.

That progression was never more evident than at the 2023 Rugby World Cup, when the then Patrice Lagisquet-led side became the neutral’s favourite by playing out one of the most thrilling matches of the tournament against Georgia and beating Fiji by a single point.

Now under the guidance of former All Black Simon Mannix, Portugal are continuing to develop their dynamic style of play and this match will offer them a fantastic opportunity to show off their ability on one of the grandest stages of all.

In preparation for their Autumn Nations Series debut, Os Lobos were in action last week but ended on the wrong side of a 21-17 scoreline against the USA following a thrilling finale that included 21 phases for Portugal inside their opponents’ half, before the Eagles pushed them all the way back from the try line to halfway to see out the victory.

That loss did not affect Portugal’s 15th-place world ranking, but it was a massive result for the USA, who recorded the biggest rise of the week, up three places to 16th, now right on Os Lobos’ tails.

Scotland form (all competitions):

Portugal form (all competitions):

Team News

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Townsend has made no less than 14 changes to the squad that featured against the Springboks last week, with Stafford McDowall set to captain the side for the first time since they faced Canada back in July.

Among the most notable changes is the return of Darcy Graham following a concussion sustained during his incredible performance against Fiji, while Arron Reed, who scored twice on debut in the mid-year Test starts at 11.

Mannix has yet to confirm his starting lineup for this weekend’s trip to Murrayfield but Valence Romans flyhalf Joris Moura will not be part of the travelling squad due to club commitments.

Outside backs, Rodrigo Marta and Vincent Pinto are ruled out with injuries, as are World Cup props Francisco Fernandes and Anthony Alves, while Pedro Bettencourt announced his retirement earlier this year due to concussion symptoms.

Scotland starting lineup: 15 Tom Jordan, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Rory Hutchinson, 12 Stafford McDowall (c), 11 Arron Reed, 10 Adam Hastings, 9 George Horne, 8 Josh Bayliss, 7 Ben Muncaster, 6 Luke Crosbie, 5 Alex Samuel, 4 Alex Craig, 3 Will Hurd, 2 Patrick Harrison, 1 Jamie Bhatti

Replacements: 16 Johnny Matthews, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Elliot Millar Mills, 19 Ewan Johnson, 20 Freddy Douglas, 21 Jamie Dobie, 22 Matt Currie, 23 Kyle Rowe

Portugal predicted starting lineup: 15 Simao Bento, 14 Raffaele Storti, 13 Jose Lima, 12 Tomas Appleton (c), 11 Jose Paiva dos Santos, 10 Hugo Aubry, 9 Hugo Camacho, 8 Joao Granate, 7 Nicolas Martins, 6 Jose Madeira, 5 Antonio Rebelo de Andrade, 4 Steevy Cerqueira, 3 Cody Thomas, 2 Luka Begic, 1 David Costa

Replacements: 16 Antonio Machado Santos, 17 Santiago Lopes, 18 Diogo Ferreira, 19 Jose Rebelo de Andrade, 20 Diego Pinheiro Ruiz, 21 Antonio Campos, 22 Manuel Vareiro, 23 Gabriel Aviragnet

We say: Scotland 42-18 Portugal

Portugal will want to give a good account of themselves in their first-ever Autumn Nations Series appearance, but after last week, Scotland will be looking for a big performance, and we feel they will get one in this match.

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