Sports Mole previews Sunday’s ATP Finals final between Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
A year after losing to Novak Djokovic in the Turin final, Jannik Sinner returns to the ATP World Tour Finals decider eager to finish this outstanding year with a victory against Taylor Fritz on Sunday.
The world No. 1 has gone 4-0 at this year’s tournament without dropping a set and faces a motivated American who stunned Alexander Zverev in Saturday’s semi-final and aims to get one over the home player in a rematch of the US Open final and round-robin match in Turin.
Match preview
© Imago
For Sinner, there may be a sense of deja vu entering Sunday’s championship match on home turf 12 months after his run to the 2023 ATP Finals decider against Djokovic.
The Italian player progressed to the showpiece match last year, having defeated the Serbian star in the round-robin and looked to stun the 2023 year-end No. 1; however, the 24-time Grand Slam champion had other ideas despite the hostile reception at the Inalpi Arena to win in straight sets.
While he entered that match against Djokovic as the underdog, Sinner is the clear favourite to complete the Turin double against Fritz and win the season-ending tournament on home soil for his eighth title of the year.
His impressive 6-1, 6-2 victory over Casper Ruud in the semi-final brought his 2024 win total to 69, tying him with Zverev; with a win in the final, he would become the sole leader in match wins on tour this season.
Only four players have beaten the best performer on the men’s tour this year — Carlos Alcaraz (three), Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev — emphasising the 23-year-old’s year-long consistency.
Winning the ATP Finals in front of a home crowd is a rare feat achieved only by Lleyton Hewitt (2001) and Andy Murray (2016), an elite group Sinner aims to join with a victory over Fritz.
© Imago
The American No. 1 player continued his impressive streak of wins over Zverev in Saturday’s thrilling last-four battle to win 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(3).
That victory secured the 27-year-old’s fourth consecutive win over the German superstar, ending the two-time Finals champion’s eight-match winning streak in the process.
Keen to avenge his straight-set losses to Sinner at Flushing Meadows and earlier in Turin, Fritz aims to be third-time lucky against the best player on the men’s tour and home favourite.
Fresh off becoming the first American to advance to the final of the US Open and ATP Finals in the same year since Andre Agassi‘s 1999 achievement, the 27-year-old now aims to stun the Italian in his backyard.
By defeating Zverev, the eight-time tour titlist ended America’s wait for a finalist at the season-ending event since James Blake reached the championship match, even if Fritz hopes to avoid the fate that befell Blake in 2006: a loss to Roger Federer in straight sets.
Bidding for the biggest victory of his career, the two-time titlist in 2024 may be the underdog in Turin, but his 10 triumphs against players ranked No. 1 to 10, the third most behind Sinner (15) and Alcaraz (12), shows his competence against elite opponents.
Tournament so far
Jannik Sinner:
Round robin: vs. Alex de Minaur 6-3 6-4
Round robin: vs. Taylor Fritz 6-4 6-4
Round robin: vs. Daniil Medvedev 6-3 6-4
Semi-final: vs. Casper Ruud 6-1 6-2
Taylor Fritz:
Round robin: vs. Daniil Medvedev 6-4 6-3
Round robin: vs. Jannik Sinner 4-6 4-6
Round robin: vs. Alex de Minaur 5-7 6-4 6-3
Semi-final: vs. Alexander Zverev 6-3 3-6 7-6[3]
Head To Head
ATP Finals (2024) – Round robin: Sinner 6-4 6-4
US Open (2024) – Final: Sinner 6-3 6-4 7-5
Indian Wells (2023) – Quarter-final: Sinner 6-4 4-6 6-4
Indian Wells (2021) – Fourth round: Fritz 6-4 6-3
Sinner is 3-1 in his head-to-head with Fritz; the American No. 1 is winless against the 23-year-old since a two-set triumph at Indian Wells three years ago.
The Italian is 7-1 in title matches this season, losing to Alcaraz in Beijing at the end of September — the last time anyone on the ATP Tour got the better of the leading men’s player.
Furthermore, Sinner’s 9-0 record on indoor courts this season and a 49-3 record on hard courts emphasise his superiority over Fritz, who holds a 5-3 and 27-13 record, respectively.
The American’s 2-2 record in title matches this season is not as dominant as his opponent’s, but he seeks his third victory in such matches this year and 53rd win overall at the 23-year-old’s expense.
We say: Sinner to win in two sets
Fritz is highly motivated to avenge his loss to Sinner at Flushing Meadows and aims to defeat the Italian in Turin.
Although the American has proven himself against top players, the world No. 1’s exceptional skills elevate him to a level few can match.
Sinner’s superior court coverage, ball striking, and execution give him a significant edge, and he is favoured to win his fourth consecutive match against Fritz and secure his 70th victory of the year.
A win in Turin would be the top-ranked player’s eighth title of the season, a fitting end to a remarkable year in front of his home crowd.
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