Liverpool have eliminated Manchester City from the title race and are so far ahead of Arsenal that only an injury crisis could prevent the Reds from winning the league.
Liverpool are now undisputed favourites for Premier League glory after effectively eliminating Manchester City from the title race on Sunday, Reds expert David Lynch has claimed.
Arne Slot‘s side were deserving victors at Anfield when they beat City 2-0 at home, and could have easily humiliated their rivals had the likes of Virgil van Dijk and Cody Gakpo converted more of their team’s chances in front of goal.
The result means that Liverpool now have 34 points from a possible 39 and are 11 points clear of the champions and nine points ahead of joint second-placed Arsenal and Chelsea.
Slot’s side also boast the division’s second best offensive and best defensive records having scored 26 times and conceded on eight occasions.
When speaking to Sports Mole, Lynch highlighted Arsenal as a potential rival for the Premier League title, but struggled to see how they can pose a serious challenge, saying: “I think Arsenal are the next best team in the league at the moment – they’re definitely ahead of City in terms of performance level.
“Their big problem is that, despite that fact, the gap is already this huge, and you need a Liverpool collapse as well as for Arsenal to [win the league].
“The gap has got as big as it has, and that is very, very difficult to pull back. So I think you can say, [I’m] not quite ready to crown Liverpool, but I think you can confidently say that [Liverpool] are huge favourites and that they would be disappointed not to win it from here.”
Why the maths say Arsenal won’t win the title
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Mikel Arteta‘s Gunners have pushed Pep Guardiola‘s Cityzens close in the past two seasons, with their tally of 89 points just two shy of the champions’ tally in 2023-24.
Many had assumed prior to the start of 2024-25 that the London club would be the team to capitalise on any potential drop off from City, but having already drawn four and lost two of their 13 Premier League matches this term, Arsenal face an uphill battle to catch Liverpool.
Indeed, Arteta’s team are on track to net 76 goals and concede 40 times, tallies that would be 15 fewer and 11 worse than the figures they posted last campaign.
As for the title race, if 90 points is seen as a benchmark for sides that want to win the league, then the Gunners will have to average roughly 2.6 points per game from now on, which would be the equivalent of a 99-point season when extrapolated over 38 matches.
Lynch doubted Arsenal’s ability to accumulate 90 points, telling Sports Mole: “To get to 90 points, [Liverpool] have to perform at the level of an 84-point team, whereas for Arsenal, they’ve got to perform at the level of a 99-point team, and this is an Arsenal side who’ve never hit 90 points.
“Liverpool can afford to let their foot off the gas a little bit and drop some points here and there. That’s not a problem. What Arsenal need is a collapse [by] Liverpool.”
Injuries the only thing in Liverpool’s way?
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Liverpool right-back Trent Alexander-Arnold returned from injury against Manchester City on Sunday, but he is only one of five senior defenders that are currently fit.
Centre-back Ibrahima Konate and full-back Conor Bradley picked up injuries against Real Madrid which are expected to keep the pair out for a number of weeks.
Lynch argued that injuries are the only thing that could derail Liverpool’s title charge, and when speaking to Sports Mole he said: “The way that you can see [a collapse] coming about is similar to what happened last season where injuries piled up, they became too much.
“Even when you were getting players back, they weren’t in rhythm. The players who had played in the meanwhile had put too much into it and were absolutely shattered by the end of the season.
“I think with the defensive injuries they’ve got at the moment, none of them are too far away – get through this month and you’re okay with Konate. Tsimikas might be a bit earlier than that. I think Bradley will be in January. But if you get one more defensive injury to someone like Joe Gomez, that’s a huge blow.”
Sports Mole editor Barney Corkhill spoke with Liverpool expert David Lynch to discuss whether the Reds can be caught by the trailing pack in the Premier League title race.
Press play on the video at the top of this article to hear the full discussion.
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