Sports Mole previews Thursday’s Paris Masters third-round match between Ugo Humbert and Carlos Alcaraz, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Ugo Humbert seeks a first career victory over Carlos Alcaraz when the home player faces the Spanish favourite in Thursday’s Paris Masters third-round encounter.
Having already eliminated two Americans — Brandon Nakashima and Marcos Giron — the 26-year-old seeks the biggest victory of all by ending his losing run against the world No. 2.
Match preview
© Imago
After coming through a tournament-opening three-setter against Nakashima, Humbert faced no such complications in Wednesday’s 6-3, 6-2 win over Giron to set up Thursday’s match-up with Alcaraz.
After a round two exit in Canada and a tournament-opening loss in Cincinnati, the French player aims to make his second Masters quarter-final this season after reaching the last eight in Monte-Carlo.
Humbert has never defeated Alcaraz on the ATP Tour, highlighting the uphill task facing the 2020 quarter-finalist at the Paris event.
While his 9-7 record at ATP 1000 tournaments highlights the indifferent form before his home event, the six-time ATP Tour titlist hopes to have most of the crowd in his corner as he hopes to take down Alcaraz.
The Spanish sensation is the favourite to notch the final Masters event this season after Jannik Sinner‘s withdrawal, and he returned to the court with a commendable showing to beat Nicolas Jarry.
Although Alcaraz was beaten by the Chilean player in their previous meeting in Buenos Aires earlier this season, the second seed notched a 7-5, 6-1 triumph to avoid consecutive losses to the 29-year-old.
He enters a third tour match against Humbert as the favourite to extend his 2-0 lead in their head-to-head but must be wary of his French opponent and a potentially partisan crowd.
Despite being favoured to notch a fifth title this season and sixth Masters 1000 title, the four-time Grand Slam champion has never advanced beyond the last eight in Paris, with that 2022 run sandwiched between round three and second-round eliminations.
He entered this year’s event with a 57% win rate — only at the Italian Masters and 1000 tournament in Canada (both 50%) does he have a lower win rate — and aims to make a second quarter-final in the French capital by avoiding a shock loss to the world No. 18.
Tournament so far
Ugo Humbert:
First round: vs. Brandon Nakashima 6-4 4-6 6-4
Second round: vs. vs. Marcos Giron 6-3 6-2
Carlos Alcaraz:
First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Nicolas Jarry 7-5 6-1
Head To Head
Davis Cup (2024) – Round Robin: Alcaraz 6-3 6-3
Wimbledon (2024) – Fourth round: Alcaraz 6-3 6-4 1-6 7-5
Alcaraz’s two match-ups with Humbert have been this season, with the Spaniard triumphing at Wimbledon en route to a successful title defence and claiming a two-set victory at the Davis Cup last month.
The Frenchman has notched three wins over top-10 players this term and a fourth will be a season-high for the home hope.
We say: Alcaraz to win in two sets
Despite some potential inconsistencies within matches, Alcaraz is favoured to overcome the home player and reach the quarter-finals of the final Masters 1000 tournament of the year.
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